Gur Aryeh
Research Institute
Complexity - Networks
Emergence - Adaptive Persistence
Critical Transitions in the
Human- Earth System Dynamics
We investigate the dynamics of the coupled human-Earth
system and the conditions that can lead to critical transitions.
Our goal is to develop conceptual frameworks and reduced
mathematical models to identify early warning indicators
assess risks, and explore pathways toward a stable and
sustainable Earth system.
Key Research Questions
1. System Dynamics
How do human activities and
natural Earth system processes
interact and coevolve across
multiple scales?
2. Critical Transitions
3. Future Pathways
What conditions can lead to
critical transitions in the
human-Earth system, and
what are the early warning
indicators?
What pathways can enhance
the resilience and sustainability
of the human--Earth system
in the face of global change?
Research Approach
Integrated System Modeling
Develop reduced models of
the coupled human-Earth
system across multiple scales
(atmosphere, oceans, land, biosphere,
and human systems).
Dynamics and Early
Warning
Analyze system dynamics to
identify indicators of critical
transitions and assess associated
risks and uncertainties.
Scenario Exploration
Use conceptual and reduced
mathematical models to explore
alternative pathways toward a
stable and sustainable Earth
system.
Current Status and Collaboration
In the current phase, we are developing
conceptual frameworks and reduced
mathematical models of human-Earth
system dynamics, critical transitions,
and sustainability pathways.
Interested in collaborating?
We welcome researchers working
in Farth custem science dimate
dynamics, ecology, social systems
risk analysis, and sustainability.